Emmy Picks

If you want a recap of my thoughts on the nominations, you can check that out here. You'll find more in-depth discussion about the categories, with suggested line ups of how the categories should have been comprised. But we got what we got, so....

Following is a Should Win / Will Win for the major categories:

Best Drama
Should Win: Really, I'd be happy with Lost, Dexter or Mad Men winning (or hell, even House, which I thought had a strong season with the search for the new team, and capped with a spectacular finale). Forced to choose, I'd go with Dexter or Mad Men, with the latter slightly ahead.
Will Win: The Sopranos connections don't hurt, and I think the voters will actually surprise us and give it to Mad Men.

Lead Actor, Drama
Should Win: Byrne carried 40+ episodes of sitting around talking, no ordinary accomplishment, but Hall, Laurie and Hamm all made us love and be fascinated with dark, complex and somewhat less than heroic central figures. Any of those 4 would represent a solid choice, but I'll go with Hall.
Will Win: If they don't inexplicably give it to Spader again (an entirely likely possibility), I'd like to think Laurie might finally break through.

Lead Actress, Drama
Should Win: Hunter is spectacular in a show I can't stand, and Sedgwick anchors a terrific and enjoyable ensemble. I'll go with Kyra.
Will Win: I think the movie star luster of Close will get her the trophy.

Supporting Actor, Drama
Should Win: Slattery or Emerson
Will Win: Emerson

Supporting Actress, Drama
Should Win: Wiest or Griffiths
Will Win: Wilson

Best Comedy
Should Win: Comes down to a choice between 30 Rock and The Office. 30 Rock had a brilliant first half and a terrible return from the strike, while The Office was more even overall. 30 Rock had more consistent laugh out loud moments, but I would probably award the consistency of The Office.
Will Win: But voters react to a few, selected episodes, so 30 Rock will take it.

Lead Actor, Comedy
Should Win: Baldwin doing "therapy" with Tracy Morgan was the single funniest thing on TV this year.
Will Win: If voters can ignore Baldwin's deplorable personal behavior, they will give him the trophy.

Lead Actress, Comedy
Should Win: Applegate, Parker and Fey all did good work, though Applegate did more complex work (playing two sides of the same person) on a lesser show.
Will Win: Applegate's compelling personal story, combined with her good work, should get the win here.

Supporting Actor, Comedy
Should Win: Harris, no contest.
Will Win: The voters for some reason don't love HIMYM like they should, but I think they might actually give it to Harris anyway.

Supporting Actress, Comedy
Should Win: Poehler's Hillary Clinton is worth the price of admission, and I missed Pushing Daisies.
Will Win: Smart is an extraordinarily talented veteran who should get the requisite votes here.

Reality Shows......who cares.

There you have it.

I always get more excited about the nominations themselves, more so than the actual awards, but I may TiVo the show and fast forward through all the fluff (being hosted by various reality show hosts -- ugh). Mad Men is "dark" tonight to make way for the show, but there is another new episode of the increasingly entertaining True Blood to watch.

LaDanian Tomlinson made me watch the Emmys

I know that I usually make Emmy and Oscar predictions. But the truth is, I can barely sit through the insipid, self-congratulatory, overly long and often shockingly unfunny awards shows just to see if my prognostications come true. I really hadn't planned on watching the Emmys last night. After all -- Seacrest! I would just look at an online list of winners this morning, update my spreadsheet, and revel in the fact that I had correctly predicted the winners in all the major categories. (Or not. 20%. Argh. I think I did better picking the 0-2 Saints to get to the Super Bowl. Or a Norv Turner coached team to win it. Norv Fucking Turner! How's that looking for me now?)

But as the night crept on, I was checking my fantasy football scores and noticed that I had a slight lead in my head to head matchup. I was ahead by a couple of points, and had LT going for me. My erstwhile competitor had New England's kicker, TE (UGAer Ben Watson) and Defense. Surely the fantasy football god that is LT would outscore two typically obscure points scoring positions and the NE D, right? I could watch the game and enjoy my victory and not worry about the Emmys. After all, Bill Belichick wasn't watching the Emmys -- he was taping them! (rim shot - try the veal and tip your servers. I'll be here all week).

Well, in just a few minutes of game time, LT was repeatedly stopped, Watson caught a touchdown pass, NE treated Phillip Rivers like a side-arm throwing pinata and the D picked off a pass and ran it back for a frakkin' touchdown. Fuck. Helllooooo, Seacrest.

I need Shaun Suisham (who? right) to kick four 50 yard field goals tonight.

There are reviews all over the interwebs about how awful the Emmys were, and I won't blather on with the same sentiment. There were only a few chuckle worthy moments: Jon Stewart and Steven Colbert (with Steve Carrell), Rainn Wilson in an overlong skit with Kanye West, John Locke speaking wistfully about Wisteria Lane, Tina Fey, and Elaine Stritch being old, ornery and funny. Mostly, I was just aghast at the choices and the winners. HERE is what should have happened with the nominations. HERE is where I picked the "should wins, will wins." Obviously, I don't have a vote. Apparently, neither does anyone else except James Spader's family.

What I got right and was happy with: The Sopranos.

What I got right and didn't much care either way: America Ferrera.

What I got wrong and didn't care much either way: Ricky Gervais.

What I got wrong, and was happy about: Terry O'Quinn. Locke didn't have as much to do as Ben this year on Lost, but O'Quinn has been solid as a rock in everything he's done for years, and John Locke is one of my absolute favorites on the island. Plus, he was classy and funny and deserving. I wanted and thought Jenna Fischer would win for The Office. But even though I wasn't enamored with the whole pregnancy storyline (which I hate on any and every show) on Earl this year, Jaime Pressley is hysterical as Joy. I still have "Joy's Wedding" stored on a Tivo somewhere in a box someplace around here. I also thought Ugly Betty would win best comedy, though I hoped The Office would take the trophy. But it was great that 30 Rock won, and Tina Fey's thank you to the "dozens and dozens" of viewers was classic. Hopefully, the Emmy will do this underviewed show more good than it did Arrested Development.

What I got wrong, and what the fuck? Spader. Look, I like James Spader, and he's been charismatic and funny and talented whenever I've caught Boston Legal. But even the award winner himself felt like he was "stealing the mob's money" with a triumph over Gandolfini, who did some of his best work this season. Did Alan Shore crunch a guy's face on a bar, American History-X style? Do peyote in Vegas? Pull his piece of shit son out of the pool where he tried to drown himself? Hold Captain Kirk's nose shut until he died? I don't think so. Sally Field? Over Kyra Sedgwick? Over Edie Falco? Huh? And Piven again? Isn't it time to show some love elsewhere? Hell, I would have even been happy giving the award to Johnny Drama instead of the more deserving Neil Patrick Harris or Rainn Wilson.

And whenever I turned off the tired awards show drivel to go back to the Sunday night game, there was Rivers getting sacked again and LT getting stuffed again. What a wasted Sunday night.

Even though I actually like a few of the Patriots, including Tom Brady, I found this post at Kissing Suzy Kolber funny. And disturbing, since it shows pictures of some of the worst leg injuries in recent sports history. Yikes! I need some brain bleach. (one prediction I won't miss: you'll grab your leg and say "shiiiiiiiit.")

Emmy Predictions

Not that I'll actually watch the Emmys. I have a backlog of recorded shows and it's football season, dammit. However, they do give these little trophies out, purportedly for excellence in television, so let's see who should and will win what.

We'll just have to deal with the nominations as they are (with a noted lack of BSG). If you recall, I already ranted and posted who should have been nominated HERE.

For each of the major categories, I'll have a "will win" (which will go into the predictions scorecard) and a "should win" (of the actual nominations).

Drama

Will Win: The Sopranos. A farewell to a landmark drama and one of TV's best. Just for fun, right before the announcement, the screen should go black to strains of Journey.
Should Win: The Sopranos. With no Lost, Deadwood or BSG, The Sopranos is clearly the class of the bunch.

Lead Actor Drama

Will Win: James Gandolfini, as I think a Sopranos farewell tour will be in effect.
Should Win: Hugh Laurie. Nobody carries their show more than Laurie, with Sutherland a close second. But 24 had an awful season that not even Jack Bauer could save.

Lead Actress Drama

Will Win: Kyra Sedgwick
Should Win: Kyra Sedgwick. Edie Falco just didn't have enough to do as The Sopranos wound down, and despite the fact that Kyra's accent annoys true southerners, she commits to it and does stellar work week in and week out in the best season yet of The Closer.

Supporting Actor Drama

Will Win: I'm tempted to go with Michael Imperioli, given The Sopranos' clout at Emmy time. Plus, he died, always award bait. However, I think Masi Oka will get the token award for Heroes, whose buzz outstripped its consistent quality (but was good popcorn fun, nonetheless).
Should Win: Michael Emerson. Who wasn't creeped out and fascinated by Ben?

Supporting Actress Drama

Will Win: Lorraine Bracco. Another Sopranos win. Although Melfi was mostly on the sidelines this year, I'm sure they submitted the one episode she had something meaty to do, which was when she "fired" Tony. And hopefully, all the Grey's Anatomy nominees will cancel each other out.
Should Win: I hate Grey's Anatomy. So Bracco. Besides, Elizabeth Mitchell should be nominated and win (along with actresses from BSG, Deadwood and/or Big Love).

Comedy

Will Win: Ugly Betty.
Should Win: I'm torn between 30 Rock and The Office, but I'll go with The Office.

Lead Actress Comedy

Will Win: America Ferrera.
Should Win: Tina Fey.

Lead Actor Comedy

Will Win: Hopefully, the "little pig" voice mail won't work against the best comedy performance of the year. Alec Baldwin.
Should Win: Baldwin.

Supporting Actor Comedy

Will Win: Rainn Wilson. I'm not unhappy with that. Dwight Schrute is a love 'em or hate 'em proposition, and I fall in the former camp.
Should Win: Neil Patrick Harris. Show stealing turn in TV's most underrated sitcom.

Supporting Actress Comedy

Will Win: I have a feeling it may be an Ugly Betty night, and this will go to Vanessa Williams. However, I'm still going to pick Jenna Fischer.
Should Win: Fischer.

Reality Program:
Oh, who the fuck cares. I, like most people, have gotten caught up in the Idol tsunami (at least for the final 12), but I really feel dirty for watching it. At least they have less of the "manufactured reality" and "unscripted dialogue" than the other drivel. If I want my entertainment without carefully though out and crafted words, then I'll watch sports.

There you have it. Call Vegas accordingly.

NFL Predictions

The season is mere moments away, and it's time for some TNRLM predictions. On the old "Accountability Scorecard," (yes, I keep a spreadsheet that tracks all my bloggy predictions on the Oscars, MLB, The Sopranos and other things) I'm hitting at a 60% clip. So, do with that knowledge what you will and gamble your kids' college funds accordingly.

NFC East: Reggie Brown plays here (Philly).
NFC South: I got drunk and saw my first stripper here at 15 (Nawlins).
NFC North: Rex Grossman is Teh Suck (Bears).
NFC West: I've never been to the pacific northwest, but think I might soon (Seattle).
Wild Cards: Like Georgia, but with bigger hats (Dallas), and they won a Super Bowl in my hometown, while I was wiggin' in Vegas (Rams).

AFC East: Their old helmet looked like Patrick Henry taking a shit (Pats).
AFC South: I really, really want to hate Peyton Manning. But I can't. He's too smart, too nice, and too good. But white on white unis still blow (Colts).
AFC North: I fucking live here, so I better pick 'em. Plus, you can't go wrong with or more uplifting than Poe (Ravens).
AFC West: My Fantasy Life depends on this (Chargers).
Wild Cards: I really should hate Cris Collinsworth, too, but I can't. He's my favorite analyst (Bengals). Jay Cutler, the best 'Dore since Jim Morrison (Denver).

Super Bowl: Chargers vs. Nawlins.

Super Bowl Champ: Chargers. Despite my better judgment on Norv Turner, I really think he'll pull a Switzer or a Gruden, and hoist the Lombardi with someone else's players.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Marshawn Lynch
Defensive Rookie of the Year: LaRon Landry
MVP: LT
Offensive Player of the Year: LT
Defensive Player of the Year: Shawne Merriman
Coach of the Year: Sean Payton

The "Italian Crystal Ball" and Galactica Enlightenment

A few things this morning.

Everyone is making predictions about the much-anticipated series finale of The Sopranos, so I'll chip in with a few:

1. Tony lives through the finale.
2. Paulie has been a traitor, working with Phil Leotardo.
3. Paulie gets whacked.
4. Phil gets whacked.

Battlestar Galactica had an "event" this week, and here's a great summary of it from AICN.

Here's an odd link I found the other day (from Pop Candy, I believe) about whistling in rock songs. I always find this annoying, because sadly, I can't whistle. Despite the sexy and simple instructions from a gorgeous Lauren Bacall, I still haven't mastered it.

A wonderfully insightful essay on the "meaning" and "blueprint" of Buffy's season 6 episode, "Flooded." For those into the analytical and philosophical structure of the show, it's a must read.

Johnny Drama for a "Fake Emmy!" And a hilarious "first person" guest column from Drama himself in Variety.

Buy me some peanuts and cracker jacks

Actually, I hate cracker jacks. Not a big fan of caramel.

2007 Major League Baseball Predictions Part 2: Individual Awards

American League

AL MVP: Vladimir Guerrero
AL Cy Young: Johan Santana
AL Rookie of the Year: Dice K

National League

NL MVP: Ryan Howard
NL Cy Young: John Smoltz
NY Rookie of the Year: Kevin Kouzmanoff

Chris Reitsma is not here to fuck us in the ass anymore

2007 Major League Baseball Predictions Part 1: Division Winners and Wild Cards

National League

West: Dodgers. Very solid rotation (until Grady Little leaves someone in until they resemble J. Walter Weatherman) and speed at the top of the order. Lineup needs to stay healthy for them to stay ahead of the Padres and possibly surprising D-Backs.

Central: Brewers. In a division where hanging around .500 will put you in striking distance in September, Ben Sheets will anchor a good staff and allow some young talent to blossom. Plus, I lived in Wisconsin as a kid and any team tied that closely to beer deserves to win every once in a while.

East: Braves. Yes, I'm a homer. I still think this team will rebound from a "disastrous" 2006 season, where they finished 4 games under .500. Andruw is in a walk year, and Chipper, Francouer, McCann and Renteria should put up good numbers. Offense will be cobbled together from platoons and/or the hot hands at 1st, 2nd and LF. The pitching will be surprisingly solid on the front end, and with a rebuilt pen, saves won't be "blown" with the frequency of a Columbus stripper.

Wild Card: Phillies. Much better pitching than the Mets, with almost as much "thump" in the day to day lineup.

American League

West: Angels. Even though they can't figure out which fucking city they want to be from, they're still the class of the West. The A's will hang around like usual, but unless Vlad's back gives out or Gary Matthews starts using dirty needles, the California/Anaheim/Los Angeles/Orange County Angels will take the division.

Central: Tigers. Toughest division to pick, as Cleveland, Chicago and Minnesota should all be competitive and improved over last year. And with Kenny Rogers injured (not from pine tar), the Tigers will have to rally their rotation or put up some serious numbers (having newly acquired cancer Gary Sheffield should help with that). Basically, I'm picking Detroit because Jim Leyland is the only person I know who smokes more than I do, and he (along with Keith Richards) gives me hope that I'll live to see another birthday.

East: Red Sox. Moving Papelbon to the bullpen is a great move for them, and I'm fully buying into the gyroball hype. Better pitching than the Yankees and even though Toronto will be improved as well, I think Boston takes the division.

Wild Card: Yankees. Outstanding top to bottom daily lineup, and A-Rod will put up monster numbers in what could well be a "walk year." Not enough starting pitching to keep up with the Sawx, though the Clemens sweepstakes could change all that.

Gold man with a sword covering his junk

The Oscars are Sunday. Unlike the Emmys, where I've probably seen every single thing nominated (with the exception of blight on humanity that is reality TV. Yes, Jordan McDeere is finally right about something), I've only seen a handful of the contenders this year. So rather than offer insightful analysis, I'll just make some predictions*

Best Actor: Forest Whitaker
Best Actress: Helen Mirren
Best Supporting Actor: Eddie Murphy
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson
Best Director: Martin Scorcese
Best Picture: Babel

*When you read "prediction" columns on sports, news, entertainment and whatnot, don't you wonder what the "batting average" of the predictor is? Me too. To that end, I'll start keeping track of predictions and post quasi-regular updates on my ability to use my Nostradamus like powers (and a Magic 8 Ball) to foresee the future. In cases where I feel strongly one way or another, I'll qualify opinions from predictions with the old "should win, will win" and track the "will wins" in my handy-dandy spreadsheet.

Speaking of Oscars, Rotten Tomatoes has done a great summary of Oscar Winning Best Pictures, ranked according to published reviews. Check it out. No problem with The Godfather being #1, nor with Casablanca, Godfather II and All About Eve being in the Top 10. Some of the other results are surprising.

On the downside, there are no hot evil robot threesomes

But in light of there being no new Battlestar Galactica tonight, there is an upside. I heard there's a football game being broadcast this evening.

Everybody and their mother (well, except for me, because my mom is dead, and maybe Drew Brees, because....) has done analysis on the game and made a pick. I guess I will too. Unfortunately, by putting my pick out here on the interwebs, I can't look like a genius tomorrow and say "I totally called that dude! I just knew that in the third quarter, Tank Johnson would pull out an assault rifle and pop a cap in the ass of Joseph Addai as he was breaking a long run!").

Colts 34, Bears 27

And your likely MVPs (not necessarily based on my prediction, and taking into account various game outcomes):

In order of likelihood:

1. Peyton Manning
2. Marvin Harrison
3. The Mute Button (for whenever Shannon Sharpe is talking during the pre-game and halftime)
4. Dallas Clark
5. Brian Urlacher
6. CBS director and editor (for Prince's halftime show, in case the "Fuck Da Eagles" chick makes a guest appearance, and I wish for whenever Shannon Sharpe appeared on my screen)
7. Adam Vinatieri
8. Joseph Addai
9. Tank Johnson's Bail Bondsman ("Chico's Bail Bonds")
10. Dwight Freeney
11. Sexy Rexy Grossman (oh come on now. I'm not that drunk yet)