Emmy Predictions

Not that I'll actually watch the Emmys. I have a backlog of recorded shows and it's football season, dammit. However, they do give these little trophies out, purportedly for excellence in television, so let's see who should and will win what.

We'll just have to deal with the nominations as they are (with a noted lack of BSG). If you recall, I already ranted and posted who should have been nominated HERE.

For each of the major categories, I'll have a "will win" (which will go into the predictions scorecard) and a "should win" (of the actual nominations).

Drama

Will Win: The Sopranos. A farewell to a landmark drama and one of TV's best. Just for fun, right before the announcement, the screen should go black to strains of Journey.
Should Win: The Sopranos. With no Lost, Deadwood or BSG, The Sopranos is clearly the class of the bunch.

Lead Actor Drama

Will Win: James Gandolfini, as I think a Sopranos farewell tour will be in effect.
Should Win: Hugh Laurie. Nobody carries their show more than Laurie, with Sutherland a close second. But 24 had an awful season that not even Jack Bauer could save.

Lead Actress Drama

Will Win: Kyra Sedgwick
Should Win: Kyra Sedgwick. Edie Falco just didn't have enough to do as The Sopranos wound down, and despite the fact that Kyra's accent annoys true southerners, she commits to it and does stellar work week in and week out in the best season yet of The Closer.

Supporting Actor Drama

Will Win: I'm tempted to go with Michael Imperioli, given The Sopranos' clout at Emmy time. Plus, he died, always award bait. However, I think Masi Oka will get the token award for Heroes, whose buzz outstripped its consistent quality (but was good popcorn fun, nonetheless).
Should Win: Michael Emerson. Who wasn't creeped out and fascinated by Ben?

Supporting Actress Drama

Will Win: Lorraine Bracco. Another Sopranos win. Although Melfi was mostly on the sidelines this year, I'm sure they submitted the one episode she had something meaty to do, which was when she "fired" Tony. And hopefully, all the Grey's Anatomy nominees will cancel each other out.
Should Win: I hate Grey's Anatomy. So Bracco. Besides, Elizabeth Mitchell should be nominated and win (along with actresses from BSG, Deadwood and/or Big Love).

Comedy

Will Win: Ugly Betty.
Should Win: I'm torn between 30 Rock and The Office, but I'll go with The Office.

Lead Actress Comedy

Will Win: America Ferrera.
Should Win: Tina Fey.

Lead Actor Comedy

Will Win: Hopefully, the "little pig" voice mail won't work against the best comedy performance of the year. Alec Baldwin.
Should Win: Baldwin.

Supporting Actor Comedy

Will Win: Rainn Wilson. I'm not unhappy with that. Dwight Schrute is a love 'em or hate 'em proposition, and I fall in the former camp.
Should Win: Neil Patrick Harris. Show stealing turn in TV's most underrated sitcom.

Supporting Actress Comedy

Will Win: I have a feeling it may be an Ugly Betty night, and this will go to Vanessa Williams. However, I'm still going to pick Jenna Fischer.
Should Win: Fischer.

Reality Program:
Oh, who the fuck cares. I, like most people, have gotten caught up in the Idol tsunami (at least for the final 12), but I really feel dirty for watching it. At least they have less of the "manufactured reality" and "unscripted dialogue" than the other drivel. If I want my entertainment without carefully though out and crafted words, then I'll watch sports.

There you have it. Call Vegas accordingly.

Emmy Nominations: what is and what should be

The Primetime Emmy nominations are in, and have no fear, I'm here to sort it all out for you. When we get closer to the awards themselves, I'll offer my usual take on "should win, will win," but for now, we'll just consider the efficacy of the nominations themselves, okay?

And a disclaimer. While I watch an inordinate amount of television, I do have a major blind spot this year. Despite almost universal acclaim from critics, and recommendations from close friends and other respected couch spuds, I've never seen Friday Night Lights. I'm not exactly sure why. I thought the book was a brilliant dissection of high school football in a small town, and I enjoyed Peter Berg's movie. I think it has to do with my low tolerance for kids on my TV. Generally, I eschew anything with kids. There have been exceptions, of course, as I watched the first few episodes of Gilmore Girls and got hooked on the snappy pop culture patter and Lauren Graham's amazing performance. I watched Veronica Mars and loved the noir-trappings and labyrinth plots, infused with topical references. (And how can you not adore a show with frequent Big Lebowski homages?) But for the most part, if the kids are front and center, it won't find a way onto my Tivo. So I won't disparage any FNL picks (or cries of omission) since I really can't comment first hand on them.

Also, THANKS to the Emmys for putting the nominees in a downloadable MS Word document. How cool is that?

Okay, here we go:

Outstanding Lead Actor In A Comedy Series

Extras
Ricky Gervais as Andy Millman

Monk
Tony Shalhoub as Adrian Monk

The Office
Steve Carell as Michael Scott

30 Rock
Alec Baldwin as Jack Donaghy

Two And A Half Men
Charlie Sheen as Charlie Harper

Not a bad list, but hasn't the Charlie Sheen thing been done to death? And Tony Shaloub is brilliant as Monk, but perhaps it's time for some new blood? Hands down the best comedy I saw all year was Andy Barker, PI. So how about some love for Andy Richter? James Roday took a potentially abrasive character in Shawn Spencer (Psyche) and made him oddly endearing (along with fine support from Dule Hill) and regularly amusing. While How I Met Your Mother has a fine ensemble cast, Neil Patrick Harris consistently bring the funny as Barney.

TNRLM's Picks: Carell, Baldwin, Roday, Harris, Richter

Outstanding Lead Actor In A Drama Series

Boston Legal
James Spader as Alan Shore

House
Hugh Laurie as Dr. Gregory House

Rescue Me
Denis Leary as Tommy Gavin

The Sopranos
James Gandolfini as Tony Soprano

24
Kiefer Sutherland as Jack Bauer

You simply cannot argue with the brilliance of Hugh Laurie, who despite a talented cast, carries House each and every week. 24 had the worst season in its history, and despite some heavy lifting from Kiefer, the show just shouldn't be recognized this year. Speaking of carrying a show, Michael C. Hall took another complex, morally ambiguous character (like Tony Soprano) and made for riveting television. Ian McShane's Al Swearingen on Deadwood was a complicated, profane and Shakespearean anti-hero that made Deadwood watching every single week.

TNRLM's Picks: Laurie, Gandolfini, Leary, Hall, McShane

Honorable Mention: David Tennant, Doctor Who. Edward James Olmos, Battlestar Galactica. James Woods, Shark.

Outstanding Lead Actress In A Comedy Series

Desperate Housewives
Felicity Huffman as Lynette Scavo

The New Adventures Of Old Christine
Julia Louis-Dreyfus as Christine Campbell

30 Rock
Tina Fey as Liz Lemon

Ugly Betty
America Ferrera as Betty Suarez

Weeds
Mary-Louise Parker as Nancy Botwin

Another year, yet another snub for Lauren Graham in Gilmore Girls. That's simply unconscionable. How does this keep happening? Nobody gave a more nuanced, deeply felt and entertaining performance this year. For 7 seasons, Graham has rattled off rapid fire, Dorothy Parker dialogue and handled every comedy and emotional beat with unparalleled skill, even when saddled with some ridiculous plot twists the last couple of years. This is a crime against humanity.

TNRLM's Picks: Graham, Parker, Fey, Huffman, Jenna Fischer, The Office

Outstanding Lead Actress In A Drama Series

Brothers & Sisters
Sally Field as Nora Walker

The Closer
Kyra Sedgwick as Dep. Chief Brenda Leigh Johnson

Law & Order: Special Victims Unit
Mariska Hargitay as Detective Olivia Benson

Medium
Patricia Arquette as Allison Dubois

The Riches
Minnie Driver as Dahlia Malloy

The Sopranos
Edie Falco as Carmela Soprano

No doubt Sedgwick and Falco belong here. But some of the best work done this year in the category happened in two little watched, "cult" shows: Battlestar Galactica and Veronica Mars. Not having Mary McDonnell as Laura Roslin in the nominations is a prime example of all the flaws in the process. On the same show, Katee Sackhoff's Kara Thrace took viewers on a riveting journey of war, love, death, abuse, duty, heartbreak and badassery all the way to the "other side." And back. Kristen Bell shined as the title character in Veronica Mars and certainly needs to be here.

TNRLM's Picks: Sedgwick, McDonnell, Falco, Bell, Sackhoff

Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Comedy Series

Entourage
Kevin Dillon as Johnny Drama

Entourage
Jeremy Piven as Ari Gold

How I Met Your Mother
Neil Patrick Harris as Barney Stinson

The Office
Rainn Wilson as Dwight Schrute

Two And A Half Men
Jon Cryer as Alan Harper

There's a fine line to straddle between what makes "lead" and "supporting." Harris is supporting? Cryer is supporting? Since I already put Harris in "lead," I'll forgo his nomination here (though he's definitely deserving of being mentioned in one of them). I totally agree with Dillon, Piven and Rainn Wilson's demented Dwight Schrute. However, I'd also add John Krasinski (Jim Halpert) from The Office who game the "Pam and Jim" story depth, while never losing the mischievous antagonism in his relationships with Dwight and Michael. And nobody made me laugh more in a supporting role this year than Harve Presnell, as cantankerous detective Lew Staziak in Andy Barker, PI.

TNRLM's Picks: Dillon, Piven, Wilson, Presnell, Krasinski

Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Drama Series

Boston Legal
William Shatner as Denny Crane

Grey’s Anatomy
T.R. Knight as George

Heroes
Masi Oka as Hiro Nakamura

Lost
Michael Emerson as Ben

Lost
Terry O’Quinn as John Locke

The Sopranos
Michael Imperioli as Christopher Moltisanti

This is probably the deepest category on the docket. Lost rebounded from a dismal first "pod" of episodes to crank out one classic after another leading up to one of the best season finales ever. In addition to the stellar work by Emerson and O'Quinn, Josh Holloway was also fantastic as Sawyer came to grips with his past (and couldn't use nicknames). However, I'm going to go a completely different way here with all the nominations. Although Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip was a brilliant failure, plagued by inconsistent writing and ridiculous storylines, Steven Weber was always engaging and fascinating to watch as Jack Rudolph. BSG again gets no love, but Michael Hogan (Saul Motherfucking Tigh) and James Callis (Gaius Baltar) both lit up the screen with complicated, raw, top shelf performances. Enrico Colantoni was the dad we all wished we had on Veronica Mars, equal parts mentor and best friend. While Oka was charismatic as time traveler Hiro on Heroes, Jack Coleman was nuanced, menacing and protective as "HRG."

TNRLM's Picks: Weber, Colantoni, Hogan, Callis, Coleman

Honorable Mention: Imperioli, O'Quinn, Oka, Emerson, Holloway. Harry Dean Stanton as Roman Grant on Big Love. JK Simmons as Will Pope on The Closer. John Scurti as Kenny Shea on Rescue Me. Robert Sean Leonard as James Wilson on House

Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Comedy Series

My Name Is Earl
Jaime Pressly as Joy Turner

The Office
Jenna Fischer as Pam Beesly

Two And A Half Men
Holland Taylor as Evelyn Harper

Two And A Half Men
Conchata Ferrell as Berta

Ugly Betty
Vanessa Williams as Wilhelmina Slater

Weeds
Elizabeth Perkins as Celia Hodes

Six? Why are the six here? And again, there's the confusion over "lead" and "supporting." Fischer and Pressly are supporting? For my sake, I'll leave Fischer in lead, and acknowledge Pressly as supporting. But what about the gals from How I Met Your Mother? Alyson Hannigan (Lily Aldrin) was smart, funny and adorable. And Cobie Smulders (Robin Scherbatsky) belongs here for the "Robin Sparkles" episode alone. If Fischer could be considered lead, then I'd add Melora Hardin into supporting for her turn as Jan Levinson on The Office.

TNRLM's Picks: Hannigan, Pressly, Perkins, Hardin, Smulders

Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Drama Series

Brothers & Sisters
Rachel Griffiths as Sarah Whedon

Grey’s Anatomy
Katherine Heigl as Isobel “Izzie” Stevens

Grey’s Anatomy
Chandra Wilson as Dr. Bailey

Grey’s Anatomy
Sandra Oh as Cristina Yang

The Sopranos
Aida Turturro as Janice Soprano

The Sopranos
Lorraine Bracco as Dr. Jennifer Melfi

Six? Again? And overload on the increasingly annoying Grey's characters? I love Bracco as Melfi, but did she really have that much to do this year other than get annoyed at Tony for ripping a page out of the magazines in her lobby? Of those listed, I appreciated Turturro, as much as a I loathe the character of Janice, but I much prefer Elizabeth Mitchell's conniving, heartbreaking Juliet. I'd add Trivia Helfer, sexy, vulnerable and menacing as Number Six on BSG and Robin Weigert's filthy, amusing and outlandish Calamity Jane on Deadwood. There's the "lead" and "supporting" dilemma again when it comes to Big Love. What do you call the three "sister-wives," who are the heart of the show? All three – Jeanne Tripplehorn (Barb), Chloe Sevigny (Nicki) and Ginnifer Goodwin (Margene) – deliver stellar performances in difficult roles, and it's hard to leave any of them out. However, if forced to choose, I'll go with Tripplehorn and Sevigny who had more to work with in year one of the show (Goodwin has shone with more to do in year two, but that's a case for next year, I suppose).

TNRLM's Picks: Helfer, Weigert, Mitchell, Sevigny, Tripplehorn

Outstanding Comedy Series

Entourage

The Office

30 Rock

Two And A Half Men

Ugly Betty

There's truly a dearth of comedies on television right now.

TNRLM's Picks: Entourage, 30 Rock, The Office, How I Met Your Mother, My Name is Earl

Outstanding Drama Series

Boston Legal

Grey’s Anatomy

Heroes

House

The Sopranos

Okay, why not six nominees here? I've long espoused Battlestar Galactica as The. Best. Show. On. Television. And that opinion hasn't changed. It's a shame that it gets so little mainstream attention because of the silly name (Buffy suffered the same fate) and genre trappings. I should note, however, that in looking through the entire list of noms, BSG was recognized in "minor" categories like direction, special effects and writing, so that's a start. Still, Emmy, suck on the Peabody. This is a tough category, perhaps second only to supporting actor for the volume of quality and depth of field. However, in an extraordinarily tough winnowing process, I'd be forced to choose the following:

TNRLM's Picks: The Sopranos, Battlestar Galactica, Deadwood, Dexter, Lost

Honorable Mention: House, The Closer, Veronica Mars, Rescue Me, Big Love

Preach it, sister

Great article here from well respected TV critic Maureen Ryan about the tragic flaws in the Emmy system. Yes, occasionally they get it right, but more often than not, they don't (see the partial list of "never nominateds" she cites). She also takes the time to point out the Peabodys, developed and awarded by a brilliant, wise, universally praised and challenging institution. (That, of course, would be my alma mater, the Henry W. Grady School of Journalism at good old UGA). It should be noted that they recognized the best show on television, Battlestar Galactica.

I would add to her list of suggestions for improvement: give me a vote. Hell, I couldn't do any worse than the current voters do, and I guarantee I watch far more television than they do.

When the official announcements come out, I'll blog away about them, and like last year, offer y'all my choices for nominees and winners.