If you want a recap of my thoughts on the nominations, you can check that out here. You'll find more in-depth discussion about the categories, with suggested line ups of how the categories should have been comprised. But we got what we got, so....
Following is a Should Win / Will Win for the major categories:
Should Win: Really, I'd be happy with Lost, Dexter or Mad Men winning (or hell, even House, which I thought had a strong season with the search for the new team, and capped with a spectacular finale). Forced to choose, I'd go with Dexter or Mad Men, with the latter slightly ahead.
Will Win: The Sopranos connections don't hurt, and I think the voters will actually surprise us and give it to Mad Men.
Lead Actor, Drama
Should Win: Byrne carried 40+ episodes of sitting around talking, no ordinary accomplishment, but Hall, Laurie and Hamm all made us love and be fascinated with dark, complex and somewhat less than heroic central figures. Any of those 4 would represent a solid choice, but I'll go with Hall.
Will Win: If they don't inexplicably give it to Spader again (an entirely likely possibility), I'd like to think Laurie might finally break through.
Lead Actress, Drama
Should Win: Hunter is spectacular in a show I can't stand, and Sedgwick anchors a terrific and enjoyable ensemble. I'll go with Kyra.
Will Win: I think the movie star luster of Close will get her the trophy.
Supporting Actor, Drama
Should Win: Slattery or Emerson
Will Win: Emerson
Supporting Actress, Drama
Should Win: Wiest or Griffiths
Will Win: Wilson
Should Win: Comes down to a choice between 30 Rock and The Office. 30 Rock had a brilliant first half and a terrible return from the strike, while The Office was more even overall. 30 Rock had more consistent laugh out loud moments, but I would probably award the consistency of The Office.
Will Win: But voters react to a few, selected episodes, so 30 Rock will take it.
Lead Actor, Comedy
Should Win: Baldwin doing "therapy" with Tracy Morgan was the single funniest thing on TV this year.
Will Win: If voters can ignore Baldwin's deplorable personal behavior, they will give him the trophy.
Lead Actress, Comedy
Should Win: Applegate, Parker and Fey all did good work, though Applegate did more complex work (playing two sides of the same person) on a lesser show.
Will Win: Applegate's compelling personal story, combined with her good work, should get the win here.
Supporting Actor, Comedy
Should Win: Harris, no contest.
Will Win: The voters for some reason don't love HIMYM like they should, but I think they might actually give it to Harris anyway.
Supporting Actress, Comedy
Should Win: Poehler's Hillary Clinton is worth the price of admission, and I missed Pushing Daisies.
Will Win: Smart is an extraordinarily talented veteran who should get the requisite votes here.
Reality Shows......who cares.
There you have it.
I always get more excited about the nominations themselves, more so than the actual awards, but I may TiVo the show and fast forward through all the fluff (being hosted by various reality show hosts -- ugh). Mad Men is "dark" tonight to make way for the show, but there is another new episode of the increasingly entertaining True Blood to watch.